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The first thing you need to know on the subject at issue here is the definition of the term “bellwether.”
In a political context, the word usually is defined as “an indicator of trends.”
Therefore, to say that the Catholic vote has been a bellwether in recent presidential elections is merely to note that it’s been an indicator of the overall results. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Catholic vote has been the deciding factor in any given presidential election.
Putting it another way, a candidate might fail to carry what had previously been a bellwether group of voters and still win ...
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