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Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that he will announce “major nuclear accomplishments” very soon, perhaps sometime this week. The nature of these accomplishments are unknown, but simply saying that he has an announcement to make concerning his nation’s nuclear capabilities (be they peaceful or otherwise) has set the region, and the world, on edge.
Leon Panetta, the US Defense Secretary, has publicly stated that there is a “strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May, or June.” This would be a preemptive attack, ostensibly made before Iran could develop a viable nuclear weapon and, it is Israel’s thought, use that weapon on Israel. The question, however, is whether or not such an attack would be successful in crippling Iran’s capabilities.
Israel has had past success in preemptive strikes, for example on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and a possible nuclear facility in Syria in 2007. But Iran is neither Iraq nor Syria. Iran’s nuclear facilities are thought to be highly decentralized and many are undoubtedly located deep underground. There are sure to be gaps in Israel’s knowledge. Success, even limited success such as setting Iran’s program back six months or a year, cannot be guaranteed. Israel must determine for itself if the risks are worth the reward.
What about the United States? Currently, the American aircraft carriers are in the region and 5th Fleet’s headquarters is in Bahrain, right across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Congress has recently approved a request for funds to improve the capabilities of the so-called Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a weapon designed to destroy facilities buried deep in the earth. President Obama has repeatedly stated that while diplomatic solutions are preferred, no options are off the table. But is America’s military or economy able to carry out the unspoken yet obvious options still on the table?
This is a highly complex situation and a discussion of it could span dozens of pages. Regardless, it is a situation that Americans should be aware of and should discuss. It’s possible that a military confrontation with Iran is in the near future. I’m not so sure that’s a good thing.
Halen Allison, of Avoca, is a former United States Marine and has worked as an intelligence analyst for the military and government since 1998, serving in Japan, Afghanistan, and Germany. He has spent most of his adult life writing, both in an official capacity and in his personal life, on topics ranging from current events, history, and politics. After 13 years of travelling, Halen has recently returned to his hometown of Avoca, NY, where he is pursuing a master’s degree in Classical History.
“It is my hope that this blog will help generate interest and discussion in current events and political matters. “I aim to write engaging, well-argued pieces that will draw the reader in and compel him or her to consider perspectives far different from the mainstream.”
Ed Spencer’s professonal experience includes more than two dozen years as a professional journalist, where he was also a noted community activist. He also founded and owned a for-profit financial services firm, as well as a not-for-profit financial and legal services company that also offered training and workshops on issues surrounding persons with disabilities for schools and businesses. He is a pastor, a TEPE parenting educator, and a teacher, facilitator and trainer for Bridges Out of Poverty. He has pastored in five churches, and most recently founded Reverb Ministries in Bath. He is a member of the Bath Citizens Advisory Council and served on the Town of Bath committee that created a comprehensive land use plan.
“I want to present new perspectives and offer sometimes challenging thoughts. As King Solomon wrote, ‘There is nothing new under the sun.’ What remains for us is to rediscover truth. My personal mission statement (is) ‘Comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable.’”
