Meteorologist warns of heavy winter
By STEVEN HERNACKI HORNELL EVENING TRIBUNE

Snow fell throughout western New York last week and temperatures dropped into the 20s as the winter of 2007 finally arrived. An accuweather meteorologist wanrs the season could be hard in spite of abalmy beginning.

Joe Bastardi just said the "B" word.

Bastardi, an Accuweather meteorologist, says the unusually mild weather we've been experiencing is similar to years producing some of the biggest blizzards on record.

Bastardi, who is the chief long-range forecaster for the State College, Pa.-based service, said the snow experienced last week could be a prelude to a major weather event.

"Winter is likely to come with a vengeance," he said. "A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

A c c o r d i n g t o Accuweather.com, the first two indicators of a blizzard are the cold shock felt by New Yorkers earlier this week, followed by unseasonably warm temperatures at the end of the week and into next week. The third indicator will be a return to normal winter temperatures in the weeks to come

PHOTOS BY JASON COX/THE LEADER and LYNN BRENNAN/THE TRIBUNE

Bastardi said the weather pattern in the coming months has a chance to be like that of the winters of 1957-58, 1965- 66 or even 1977-78 - which resulted in "back-to-back-toback blizzards in the Northeast." He believes if the weather pattern reaches its fullest potential, the result could be "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."

David Nicosia, warning coordination meteorologist for the NOAA National Weather Service in Binghamton, is uncertain what kind of weather is in store for New Yorkers in the coming weeks.

"There's always a chance we could get a really big storm," he said. "In the past, there have been winters where it starts off mild and then we get a big storm. Anything's possible with the weather."

Nicosia said the region is entering the season in which blizzards are likely, but that it does not necessarily mean there will be a blizzard.

"Generally, February and early March is the best chance if you're going to forecast a blizzard in the long range," Nicosia said. Just as the best chance to forecast a severe weather outbreak in summer is May-June and the best chance to forecast a hurricane is August-October, he added.

"The winter of '77-'78 was a heck of a storm," Nicosia said, adding the winters of 1957-58 and 1965-66 also had blizzards associated with them.

But it was much colder then. We would need anomolously cold weather to mimic those patterns," he said.

"The ingredients will be in place," Nicosia said. "Whether it happens or not, we'll have to wait and see."

Nicosia underlined the inherent unreliability of long-range forecasts and emphasized only hind-sight can see the shape of a season.

"I don't know at this point which winter this could mimic," he said. "It's such an uncertain science beyond 7 to 10 days."

But even if the coming weeks brings only a return to winter normalcy, Nicosia said the temperature change will take many people by surprise.

"The return of winter-like weather is going to be quite a shock for a lot of our residents," Nicosia said. "Even if we get to a situation where it is slightly below normal (temperature), it will feel really cold to everyone."

Mike Halpert, head of forecast operations for NOAA climate prediction center, said the temperature will drop in the coming weeks, but the disposition of the season is still unclear.

"It's certainly going to get colder," he said, "because we haven't seen anything near normal yet."

According to Halpert, the unseasonably warm weather experienced by New Yorkers will likely come to an end soon.

"I believe in the next few days it will warm up. It won't be until Monday or Tuesday when it gets colder and remains so for a week or more," Halpert said.

Forecast models from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center - which specializes in severe weather, including blizzards and snow storms - indicate cold weather is around the corner but does not show a winter storm in the near future, he said.

"Our (7-14-day) forecast models do not show any sign of a big blizzard or snow storm," Halpert said.

In the very short term, Steuben County residents can expect freezing rain in the early morning hours for Friday, making for a rough commute in to work.