Welcome to winter
Farmers Almanac predicts tough winter; not so fast says NWS
By ROB PRICE THE COURIER-ADVOCATE

PHOTO BY ROB PRICE Nineteen degrees felt warm Thursday afternoon after temperatures plummeted into the single digits earlier last week.

Last week's blast of frigid weather seemed to confirm the 2008 Farmer's Almanac long range forecast of colder than usual winter conditions, with plenty of snow for skiers in the northeast.

"Skiers in eastern New York and New England will enjoy some great conditions," the Almanac predicted on its website (www.farmersalmanac.com). "The winter should also average as much as three degrees below normal down most of the Atlantic Coast, from New England through the Mid-Atlantic."

Temperatures in the Southern Tier last week dove into the single digits before changing direction during the weekend. Earlier in the week, lake effect weather dumped snow across the state.

Does the Almanac know something the weatherman doesn't.

The answer is no, according to the National Weather Service in Binghamton. Weather forecasts extending beyond a week lose their reliability as new, unpredictable factors enter the weather equations, according to Meteorologist Mike Jurewicz.

"Uncertainty tends to grow after four or five days," Jurewicz said last week. "There are so many variables it's a really risky business."

Jurewicz also said long range forecasts such as the Almanac's tend to be vague - a function of the uncertainty of the weather. "They don't get specific at all, and that's a hint how uncertain it all is."

When asked whether a prediction of "three degrees below normal" is specific, Jurewicz noted the National Weather Services uses computer models for its own forecasts. "And those models cannot resolve (the future) that far out."

Southern Tier residents wondering whether the next three months will be mild, normal or blustery just have to choose who to trust: a professional meteorologist or a magazine that has been publishing weather forecasts since 1818.

At least the stakes aren't as high as they are for residents of the country's "Tornado Alley" region. The Almanac forecasts "an unusually active" tornado season for the nation's heartland.