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UFC on ABC 1: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown odds, picks and prediction

Joe Williams
Sportsbook Wire

In a welterweight bout on Saturday's main card, Carlos Condit and Matt Brown meet at UFC on ABC 1 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 7. The prelims kick off at noon ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Condit (31-13) stands two inches taller than his counterpart, with a slight half-inch advantage in the reach department. The two are fairly even in the significant strikes landed per minute category, with Brown (24-17) holding a slight 3.81 to 3.69 advantage. Brown is also much more accurate with the big blows, leading 54.26 to 39.11 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage.

Brown has hinted that this could be the final fight of his career, while Condit is fighting in the final bout of his current contract, so both of these fighters should let it all hang out. Brown is coming off a second-round KO/TKO loss to Miguel Baeza in Jacksonville, Fla., May 16, 2020. Win or lose, Brown fights have been exciting lately, with five straight bouts ended via KO/TKO (2-3), and seven straight stoppages dating back to his last decision on March 14, 2015, at UFC 185.

Condit - a.k.a. "The Natural Born Killer" - snapped a five-bout losing streak with a unanimous-decision win over Court McGee last time out on Oct. 3, 2020. He has fallen hard since fighting for a strap at UFC 195 against "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler. He lost that night in the title bout as he tried to regain his strap, and he hadn't won in over five calendar years before his win over McGee. Now, Condit looks to start 2021 off on the right foot, searching for consecutive victories for the first time since he rattled off five straight victories from Sept. 16, 2009, to Feb. 4, 2012. Condit's last fight went the distance, but two of his past three have come by stoppage (both submissions), and six of his past nine have finished inside the distance.

This event will be broadcast on network television for the first time since a FOX broadcast in December 2018. It will also be the first time a limited number of fans can attend since UFC 248. The UFC is expecting around 2,000 fans, or less than 10 percent capacity.

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Condit vs. Brown: Betting odds,predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:44 p.m. ET.

Condit (-165) just hasn't been himself lately, and BROWN ( +140) might be fighting with more desperation than usual if he really is going to call it a career. As such, I like the moderate underdog here as a nice value.

I also really like NO ( -110): " WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?" as Brown's past seven fights have not needed the judges to get involved. Condit hasn't been as quick to find a winner lately, but 66.7% of his previous nine have ended via stoppage. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS ( +100) appears to be a pretty good value, too, as if the fight doesn't go all the way, it isn't going this far, either.

I am also buying BROWN IN ROUND 2 ( +950) and BROWN IN ROUND 3 ( +1500). I like him for the upset win, and if he finishes in either of the final two rounds, you'll be well ahead even though you'll obviously lose one end. BROWN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION ( +280) is worth a roll of the dice, too.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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