Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz odds, picks and prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies (8-8) link up with the Utah Jazz (11-5) Monday for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Memphis has lost four of its past six games - including a 138-95 beatdown Saturday by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Grizzlies have the worst defensive efficiency in the NBA along with the 25th-ranked net rating (minus-5.4). Memphis is 9-7 ATS and 8-8 O/U.
Utah stormed past the Sacramento Kings 123-105 Saturday for its third consecutive win. The Jazz have the highest rebounding rate and second-highest effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in the Association. Utah is 10-6 ATS and 6-10 O/U with the second-best net rating (plus-9.8).
The Jazz rallied back after losing Game 1 of their first-round playoff series with the Grizzlies to win 4-1 (4-1 ATS). Memphis has only beaten Utah once in the past 10 meetings (3-7 ATS), which includes last year's postseason. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 10 Grizzlies-Jazz meetings.
Grizzlies at Jazz odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Grizzlies +420 (bet $100 to win $420) | Jazz -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +9.5 (-108) | Jazz -9.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Grizzlies at Jazz key injuries
- PG De'Anthony Melton (groin) questionable
- SG Dillon Brooks (hamstring) questionable
Grizzlies at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Jazz 121, Grizzlies 108
PASS because the Jazz (-600) should handle business at home Monday, but Utah's money line is out of my price range.
Also, the most important phase of basketball nowadays is the 3-point shot. Well, Memphis has the worst 3-point defense in the Association, and Utah has the highest 3-point volume.
Furthermore, the Jazz have a below-average 3-point shooting percentage as a team but have the highest adjusted offensive shot quality (according to ShotQuality.com). If anything Utah is due for a couple of hot shooting nights, and Memphis is the perfect opponent for a good 3-point shooting night.
"LEAN" to the JAZZ +9.5 (-112) because they should be able to win by margin based on their high free-throw rate and the aforementioned 3-point analysis. Utah has the second-highest free-throw rate in the NBA while Memphis has the fourth-lowest free-throw rate.
Moreover, I can count on the Jazz making key stops down the stretch whereas the Grizzlies can't stop a nosebleed. Utah has the fifth-best defensive efficiency and Memphis ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency.
However, I only "LEAN" to the JAZZ +9.5 (-112) because the Over is my favorite bet in this contest.
BET 1 unit on the OVER 222.5 (-108) because both offenses should have success in this matchup.
For instance, Memphis has the fifth-worst pick-and-roll defensive efficiency vs. the ball handler, and Utah runs the third-highest frequency of pick-and-roll offense through the ball handler.
On top of that, the Grizzlies attempt the highest volume of short mid-range field goals per game, and the Jazz rank 20th in defensive field goal percentage vs. short mid-range jumpers (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
Additionally, Memphis generates a ton of easy buckets through effort. For example, the Grizzlies are either first or second in fastbreak points, second-chance points and paint points per game. Conversely, the Jazz rank 19th or worse in fastbreak points, second-chance points and paint points allowed per game.
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